Equisigma Research Market Intelligence Note

Indian and Global Market Outlook

Indian Market

Indian equity markets ended the fifth straight week on a weaker note, reflecting heightened volatility and cautious investor sentiment amid global uncertainties. The Sensex declined 1.27% to 73,583, while the Nifty 50 slipped 1.28% to 22,819, with the broader small-caps and mid-caps losing 0.6% and 1.4%, respectively. The week saw sharp swings and initial losses due to rising geopolitical tensions, a record-low rupee, and elevated crude oil prices, followed by a midweek recovery on hopes of de-escalation. However, renewed selling on Friday erased gains, indicating fragile sentiment. Technically, the Nifty remains near crucial support at 22,500, while 23,000–23,500 remains a key resistance zone, suggesting limited upside in the near term.

Global Market

Global markets remained volatile, driven by geopolitical tensions and mixed macroeconomic signals. In the US, equity markets extended their weakness, with the broad market index marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 3.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.9% for the week. Elevated crude oil prices and uncertainty around energy supply continued to weigh on global risk appetite. While Europe showed signs of slowing growth and Japan’s inflation softened, China’s improving industrial data provided some support to Asian markets. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve maintained a cautious, data-dependent stance amid persistent inflation and softening economic indicators, keeping investors on edge.

Key Reasons for Market Movement

• Escalating geopolitical tensions and prolonged Middle East conflict

• Surge in crude oil prices and fears of energy supply disruptions

• Weakening Indian rupee hitting record lows

• Continued FII outflows and risk-off sentiment

• Moderation in domestic economic activity and rising inflation concerns

• Mixed global macro data, especially from the US and Europe

US–Iran Warfare

Geopolitical tensions remained the primary overhang, as the ongoing 2026 Iran war continued to disrupt global markets. The conflict has intensified over recent weeks, with sustained missile and drone attacks across the Middle East and damage to key energy infrastructure, raising fears of a prolonged crisis. The temporary pause in US strikes offered brief relief to markets; however, uncertainty persists as negotiations remain inconclusive and military activity continues. Disruptions in critical routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil supply passes, have heightened concerns around energy security and inflation.

Economy

On the domestic front, economic indicators reflected some moderation in growth momentum. India’s private sector activity slowed to a multi-month low in March, impacted by softer domestic demand, geopolitical uncertainties, and rising inflationary pressures. However, the broader macro-outlook remains resilient, with agencies projecting steady GDP growth above 7% over the medium term. Globally, economic data remained mixed, US business activity slowed amid rising input costs, while labour market indicators showed signs of weakening, adding to concerns around global growth and policy uncertainty.

Outlook for the Upcoming Week

Markets are expected to remain volatile with a cautious bias in the coming week. Investors will closely monitor developments in the Middle East, particularly any progress on ceasefire negotiations and movement in crude oil prices. Domestically, key data releases such as India’s Industrial Production (30 March) and Manufacturing PMI (2 April) will provide insights into economic momentum. Globally, attention will be on US macro data including JOLTs, ISM PMI, retail sales, and Non-Farm Payrolls, which could influence interest rate expectations. Additionally, a truncated trading week due to holidays may amplify volatility. India’s structural growth story remains intact, near-term direction will depend on external factors such as crude oil trends, currency stability, and global policy cues. Investors are advised to remain cautious and focus on quality stocks, with trend reversal emerge.

Best Regards

Team Equisigma.